So he has finally found the venue where he is prepared to have a camera pointed at him. The curtains behind the lectern at the Dutch venue was too far to travel when he was busy; the curtains behind his desk in Downing Street, addressing the British public directly, were dismissed for unknown reasons; he finally settled on a camera pointed at the curtains behind the lectern at Bloombergs to agree to speak to camera. Who knew that curtains were so important to him?

We have now heard in the Prime Minister’s very own voice – or was he lip synching like Beyonce? – the contents of the speech that has been leaked to every major news outlet every day since last week. Never was a nation so underwhelmed.

How did he keep a straight face delivering lines like ‘referendum promised but not delivered’ and make it sound as though it was nothing to do with him. British comedy is not dead yet. ‘National parliaments instill fear and respect in politicians’ was another personal favourite. We have had first hand experience of how much fear and respect our parliament instills in our politicians…

The next Conservative Manifesto in 2015 will ask for a mandate from the British people for a Conservative Government to negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next Parliament. And when we have negotiated that new settlement, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice to stay in the EU on these new terms; or come out altogether. It will be an in-out referendum.

Legislation will be drafted before the next election. And if a Conservative Government is elected we will introduce the enabling legislation immediately and pass it by the end of that year. And we will complete this negotiation and hold this referendum within the first half of the next parliament.

Have we got it now? We will have a referendum in 2017 so long as we re-elect Cameron, so long as he has renegotiated our treaty with Europe, and that will be enshrined in draft legislation – which is not binding on an incoming politician of any hue. This is quite different from the referendum we were promised in the Conservative manifesto which is not binding on politicians once elected. As the meerkat advert would say, draft legislation/manifesto, they are spelt differently…

He has already asked the British public what they think – it was called an election. That’s how he got to choose which curtains to deign to appear before.

They want a referendum.

Not a promise of a promise of a promise which isn’t binding.

Ho Hum January 23, 2013 at 22:22

Anyone who would give my mother, or anyone who actually pays to get a copy
of the Daily Mail, a vote on a matter of such profound importance, is a
twat.

john warren January 23, 2013 at 20:27

The French are always been happy to see Britain leave. However, I can think
of a few times they’ve been happy to see the British Tommies return. We
shouldn’t really get too upset by the voting record of the French.

Post the two wars, which were both of their own making, things have now
worked out well for the Germans. They now dominate Europe whilst managing to
look like the good guys. If they truly want to be the good guys and putting
the argument another way: They managed to keep the eastern hordes out of their
country for ten long years whilst Britain soaked up the first mad rush of
immigrants. So, on the basis of little more than fair-play, why doesn’t our
wretched leader ask their wretched leader if Germany will agree to absorb the
mad rush that’s soon to come our way? Why not give Britain a ten year break in
which to recover from the first deluge?

Seems fair to me but it’s not going to happen – not ever. The EU commissars
will send tanks through the tunnel first (only in order to mop up we British
dissidents of course).

Before anyone thinks to pour scorn on the notion, please first read a few
books on 20th century European History.

Ancient + Tattered
Airman January 23, 2013 at 19:06

An online poll in France’s centre-right newspaper Le Figaro suggested many
French people would be happy to see Britain leave.

With more than 15,500 votes cast, 70% favoured the UK leaving over 30% who
disagreed.

Mr Cameron’s name was trending among French users of Twitter as of
Wednesday afternoon.

While it appeared not to rank high among German tweeters, a phone poll by
German broadcaster n-tv on whether Britain should leave the EU found 80% of
viewers in favour of exit, to 20% who disagreed.

alan scott January 23, 2013 at 17:58

About time most of your commentators began to realise that their dreams of
having any actual impact on things is kindly speaking minimal. Hopes may
indeed be dreams, but dupes are generally liars.
I despair for the formerly
educated classes of England. Chesterton rise again.

Bill
Sticker January 23, 2013 at 16:15

Referendum promise? I think this will end up like all of “Cast iron” Dave’s
promises.

Engineer January 23, 2013 at 15:05

If Cameron could renegotiate the entire EU setup such that it became a free
trade area based on independent nation states co-operating, that would
probably be acceptable. Any political union closer than that would not be (to
me, anyway). That would mean tearing up the Lisbon Treaty, the Maastricht
Treaty and probably much else.

I suspect the chances of this happening are somewhere close to zero. It
would not suit the comfortable, publicly-funded lives of those currently
driving the EU (the unelected Commissioners and their many overpaid minions)
to be effectively voted out of existence, so they won’t allow it. It wouldn’t
suit those countries currently in net receipt of EU funds to lose them, so
they won’t be keen either.

If, at the end of this negotiation process, we do get our referendum (oh,
look – a pig fluttering past!) the chances are that British public disillusion
with the whole EU setup would deliver an ‘out’ verdict. So they won’t allow
that, either….

Keep the pressure on, UKIP. You seem to be about the only political party
advocating any sort of genuine democratic representation and accountability in
the whole of Europe at the moment.

binao January 23, 2013 at 18:30

Agree entirely but just can’t see any way forward.
Like the euro,
things are too far along to unravel without a lot of pain.
Alone it’s bit
like trying to get one egg back out of an omelette.
So we’ll just have to
hope that when it falls apart it doesn’t destroy us.

Moor
Larkin January 23, 2013 at 14:46

That didn’t take long…….

“Ed Miliband rules out support for in-or-out EU referendum”
“Labour
leader hardens party’s position against referendum”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/23/ed-miliband-in-out-eu-referendum

Saul January 23, 2013 at 14:32

The ones running scared here are the Lib Dems, having lost all credibilty
they will be lucky to fill a taxi in the next General Election.

Saul January 23, 2013 at 13:22

Anyone who thinks there will ever be a referendum with a yes/no vote, is
living in Cloud Cuckoo Land.

Mudplugger
January 23, 2013 at 13:35

Depressing, but I fear you may be right. So it’s out onto the streets
with the riots…

Moor Larkin January 23, 2013 at 14:15

If you want to leave the EEC then you have to be certain you will win
the vote before you have a referendum. Last I read, the best poll for
those who wish to get out, suggested those in favour of leaving was… 49%
…. Seems like a nobrainer to me.

Moor
Larkin January 23, 2013 at 13:12

Surely the immediately significant thing to be watching is what the Labour
response to this is.

According to all the polls, short of Scottish devolution before the next
election, the odds are that Labour will be the next government of the UK.

It would be ridiculous of Cameron to try to railroad something through
quickly that would then be simply abandoned by the incoming regime and the
debate ended for evermore, coupled with an inevitable need to appease the
Commissioners. Besides which, I think Cameron’s approach all along has been to
allow the economic crisis between the members of the Euro to achieve far more
than any political posturing by him could ever achieve.

The French socialists have already started a new war to take the Frenchie’s
minds off things closer to home, and even more blood and treasure will now be
squandered. Eventually the pigeons will have roosted for so long the Eurocrats
will be knee-deep in guano and sooner or later the stink will; get too much
for the Germans.

binao January 23, 2013 at 15:52

Regardless of treaty restrictions it’s difficult to imagine who could
credibly formulate and negotiate beneficial changes on our behalf; so why
would DC’s imaginary referendum ever become real? Some face saving miniscule
adjustments more likely.
So it all still looks like skirmishes on the way
to the full eu democracy lite socialist paradise protecting us all from the
world beyond Europe’s borders.
The Brits are are just taking longer to
get on board.
I do hope I’m wrong.
It could have been so much
better.

davidb January 23, 2013 at 18:52

The electoral maths is too hard to call at this stage. We have several
factors at play. Labour well and truly screwed the economy and everyone
knows it. Generally its the economy stupid. Unemployment continues to fall.
It is only a matter of time until people are confident enough to start
spending again. The only people buying spending cuts (and global warmism for
that matter) are the ministry of Propaganda at Broadcasting House. Miliband,
the brother stabbing Labour leader has an awful voice. When he is on telly
every night he’ll be like a young Michael Foot. Electoral suicide.

The Libdems will be punished for the coalition. That is why the SNP got a
majority in Scotland, the Libdem vote collapsed. So their votes are up for
grabs – and their diehards may well stay at home. That has unpredictable
consequences for voting patterns in many parts of the UK. Depending upon
whether the SNP win ( which I doubt anyway ) the I/P referendum will have
dramatic effects on the Scottish Westminster result the following year. The
post referendum outcome in Scotland is not really predictable.

Cameron is being cynical in saying what he did today. Any votes he stands
a chance of getting are UKIP votes. He cannot move on immigration because
the ethnics are the largest growing demographic – and if not 2015, then
surely before long, his party needs to woo them. He is hoping to neutralise
the anti EU element and shore up support knowing full well that he has
promised only jam tomorrow, and when in any event he already has croissants
per fruhstuk himself. Even if he wins a landslide I’d wager England will
still be in the EU on much the same terms it is now in 2020.

Umbongo January 23, 2013 at 12:45

Cameron has (I think) done sufficient to dish UKIP in respect of the next
general election (if not the next EU election). What you didn’t and will never
hear from the BBC or any of the paper press (except perhaps Christopher Booker
in the Sunday Telegraph) reporting/commenting on this one is 1. there is
definitively no prospect of any meaningful “renegotiation” of our
relationship with the EU and 2. UKIP’s demand for an immediate “in-out”
referendum is either naive or wilfully obtuse.

Re 1. there is no mechanism (outside the Article 50 process) by which
powers can be “returned” to us absent a unanimous agreement of the EU
members (how likely is that?)
Re 2. UKIP’s publicity all but ignores the
Article 50 process which involves (a) notice to the EU that we’re leaving and
(b) a negotiation to agree the terms of our exit (which could incorporate a
genuine “free trade” agreement with the EU a la NAFTA).

Accordingly, an “out” referendum result would precipitate an Article 50
negotiation not, as UKIP implies, an immediate unconditional withdrawal.

As can be seen, the issues are already being shrouded in lies and
distortion: it’ll get worse!

John
Galt January 24, 2013 at 07:32

“Accordingly, an “out” referendum result would precipitate an
Article 50 negotiation not, as UKIP implies, an immediate unconditional
withdrawal.”

As one firmly in the UKIP camp, I accept that immediate withdrawal
without going through an Article 50 negotiation is not in Britain’s best
interests. There would be too many unanswered questions. However, despite
what our EU masters would prefer, no British parliament can pass legislation
that cannot be repealed by a successive parliament. Therefore it would be
quite in order for us to have a referendum and if it is in favour of
immediate withdrawal, repeal all EU legislation on the EU statute books.
Some transitional legislation may be required where EU legislation covered
areas deemed necessary by the British parliament, but that would be all.

Another alternative would be to unilaterally withdraw from European
institutions (not necessarily EU ones) which are mandatory for all EU
members, this should theoretically trigger an automatic expulsion from the
EU, but as with all of these things the EU would probably fudge it if it
thought it was necessary.

Regardless of the success or otherwise of Article 50 negotiations, two
years after formal notification of withdrawal it would be effective unless
the UK and EU jointly decided to extent the negotiations.

Two years is a relatively short time to finalize how Britain’s future
relations with the EU would operate (bi-lateral trade, foreign affairs,
etc.), I think even the most ardent Euro-sceptic would be prepared to live
with that. Equally, once one major EU country secedes, it makes it easier
for the rest to do so as well. I’ll be surprised if anything exists to
celebrate an EU centenary in 2050 or whenever, as the EU simply isn’t
sustainable as anything more than a free-trade zone.

Umbongo January 24, 2013 at 12:31

I am not anti-UKIP. The purpose of my comment was to highlight
that:
1. Cameron, in offering a refendum (albeit an “offer” which is
highly nuanced and mired in dishonesty), has undercut UKIP’s principal
raison d’etre;
2. the process of withdrawal is not as simple as
repealing some legislation: UKIP does not make this clear nor does it
AFAIAA lay down a roadmap involving the article 50 process.
3. the
media, as well as more or less ignoring the article 50 escape route,
refuses to inform their readers/viewers/listeners as to what is required.
What is required is that before effective negotiations on a new
relationship or withdrawal even begin, the UK has to give notice to the EU
that it intends to withdraw from the present arrangements. Accordingly,
there should probably be a referendum before renegotiaion (to
justify the article 50 “notice”) and another one after the renegotiation
to confirm the outcome of the withdrawal/new relationship agreement. This
is not diffult to understand nor, in principle, to carry out. It’s that
the political class (EUnutters to a wo/man) don’t want the electorate to
know and would rather obfuscate the process and the issues.

john warren January 23, 2013 at 12:17

Anna, given that you made the decision to move to France and since must
have made a considerable financial and emotional investment over there, I
think you’ve made a brave post. There really is little doubt now that the UK
would not be part of the EU had key 1970s UK politicians spelt out clearly the
nature of their long-term political objectives. They lied to us. We, the
British public, were not the only ones duped however, dozens of dopey MPs also
fell into a trap set by Heath, Wilson and Co. I’ve no faith in the present
government to set things right. The history books will still be written
however.

JimS January 23, 2013 at 12:59

Is to much to hope that our brave overpaid ‘journalists’ might one day
put the direct question to our Political Pygmies, “Are you in favour of an
ever closer political union, ultimately leading to a European state?”, and
insist on a direct answer?

The EU is a cul-de-sac of over-regulation and diminishing returns. The
future is the rest of the world and trade with it. Little seems to have been
made of the news this January that Honda are laying off 200 workers as a
result of poor sales in Europe while Land-Rover are taking on 200 as a
result of expanding sales to China. A diminishing market of 250 million or
an expanding market of 2 billion, please give us the choice!

Ed P January 23, 2013 at 12:16

It’s all a smokescreen – there are no EU mechanisms for renegotiation. The
only option is withdrawal under Article 50. So it seems Cameron thinks he’ll
get away with this blatant lie (or ignorance).

binao January 23, 2013 at 11:57

Don’t think the poor old thing had many options really, with MEP elections
coming up, but I don’t think many sceptics will be fooled for a moment.
As
you say Anna, all ‘if and when’.
The sceptics have built up a lot pressure
given their minimal resources compared to the forces ranged against them, not
least the BBC, but I don’t think we’ve even begun to see the weight of those
forces yet.
Perhaps it’s a campaign of get the eu opposition to expose
itself the more decisively to destroy it.
Probably a sign I’ve been indoors
too long today, but there’s a beautiful green woodpecker drilling my
garden…..

Joe Public January 23, 2013 at 11:50

“This is quite different from the referendum we were promised in the
Conservative referendum …… ” “…..manifesto”, surely?

Joe Public January 23, 2013 at 11:43

Thanks for the summary, Anna. Lifted, & e-mailed to my (Tory-ish)
MP.

MTG January 23, 2013 at 11:21

Our democracy is blessed with politicians who seek the views of citizens
whenever it is necessary to line up a scapegoat for a done deal, should it go
wrong.

DtP January 23, 2013 at 11:16

Sorry – could I just do Sub Ed work ‘This is quite different from the
referendum we were promised in the Conservative referendum which is not
binding on politicians once elected’ – do you mean Conservative Manifesto?

Fully agree though, not so much bollox as that would require some sort of
angst fuelled energy, more of a snort, a meh, a rolling of the eyes and maybe
a gallic trump!

tonyb January 23, 2013 at 11:16

And if we don’t give them the right answer we will be asked again, and
again, and again until we do.

All smokescreen and mirrors

GildasTheMonk
January 23, 2013 at 11:15

Didnt think it was much of a speech. The usual all things to all men
platitudes. Blah blah blah…
I was shocked by the Beyonce lip synch affair.
Turns out she is just a “beautiful liar”.
With a little help from Shakira
and the Freemasons (who’d a thunk it – obviously branching out down at The
Lodge…)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vstT-sYykbg

JuliaM January
23, 2013 at 12:13

A faux song for a faux President. What could be more appropriate?

Saul January 23, 2013 at 13:19

Faux more years…

GildasTheMonk January 23, 2013 at 14:52

Bravo Saul

Ted Treen January 23, 2013 at 13:26

“…The usual all things to all men platitudes. Blah blah blah…”

As politics is the art of replying to a question without answering it,
who, other than the terminally naive, would have expected anything
different

GildasTheMonk
January 23, 2013 at 14:51

Indeeed, TT!

Mudplugger January 23, 2013 at 11:04

It is only the electoral mathematics of the growing UKIP vote which brought
about that desperate non-speech. And it won’t change a thing – hopefully, when
the 2014 Euro Election delivers massive UKIP support, they (and that’s all of
them, not just Cameron) might finally get the message.

The EU needs Britain far more than Britain needs the EU, always has done
and we’ve always known that, we’re just starting to shout it out loud enough
for them to start hearing. Exit can’t happen soon enough.

David
Duff January 23, 2013 at 10:34

And at least two of the assembled hacks asked the key question – ‘will you
campaign for a ‘No’ if you fail to get anything from the Europeans?’ Answer
came there none! Why am I not surprised?

Thor2Hammer January 23, 2013 at 10:33

“And we are so confident in the innate commonsense of the British people
that – should this referendum inexplicably produce the wrong result – I pledge
to propose that a future manifesto will mention that a future Conservative
Government will discuss the possibility of offering further opportunities to
GET IT RIGHT every 5 or so years.”

c777 January 23, 2013 at 10:24

Thought so.
He fudged it.
UKIP or nothing now.
Lets see the polls
go up for them, except YouGov of course, which is practically part of the EU
apparatus.

JuliaM January
23, 2013 at 12:11

Count on it!

Frankie January 23, 2013 at 16:22

‘…The sure sign of a halfwit is someone who believes a politician’s
promise’.

Smoke and mirrors…