Predictive Policing and ‘Allegator’ Algorithms.
Traditional Policing has always paid attention to crime ‘hot spots’. Keeping an eye on the ATM machine where several muggings have occurred over the previous few weeks; Making a regular ‘drive by’ a park where a rapist is known to have operated. It makes sense.
Kansas City police have taken this to a new level. No longer content with waiting for a particular criminal to return to a particular crime by way of predictability – they are now looking at his friends and family, on the grounds that sharing the odd MacDonald’s cheeseburger with a criminal shows the sort of person you are, and thus worth harassing in order to ‘prevent crime’.
Ezekiel Edwards, the director of the Criminal Law Reform Project of the American Civil Liberties Union is concerned.
“Our concern is guilt by association. Because you live in a certain neighbourhood or hang out with certain people, we are now going to be suspicious of you and treat you differently, not because you have committed a crime or because we have information that allows us to arrest you, but because our predictive tool shows us you might commit a crime at some point in the future.”
We are at the infant stage of this in the UK. We arrest people who may be colleagues of those who have committed crimes, announce the arrest to the media, request that ‘other victims come forward’, and wait for the onslaught of hopeful claimants.
It is part and parcel of the fashion for dividing the population into deserving and non-deserving groups when to comes to policing. Insults traded on Twitter take precedence over houses burgled. The colour of the mugging victim denotes whether this is a ‘hate crime’ which requires all stops to be pulled out, or an ‘unfortunate incident’ which just shows the need for innocent citizens to take care when walking in dark streets…
The fashion is spreading to the judiciary, with extra time added to the sentence of those accused of abusing Asian girls because of the ‘extra shame’ their family feels when the marriage dowry is reduced because the goods are damaged. This in turn deprecates the damage done to young english girls by such abuse, and surely places them at additional risk?
We see it in the sentencing of female predators, who ‘engage in sexual activity’ with ‘teenage’ pupils, as opposed to male predators who ‘groom’ and use their ‘power and influence to force themselves’ onto ‘children’.
The basis for policing, indeed the entire judicial system, is that Justice should be universal, objective, and impartial. Not that it should vary according to some algorithm based on which particular section of the population you belong to. Signed up to a particular victim group? Collect a ‘get out of jail card’! Billy Nomates having a drink with that chap you went to school with? Expect a dawn raid with accompanying media coverage.
It has been the ‘tweaking’ by the state in favour of certain groups in the name of social engineering that has caused the problem – and it may be coincidence or not that those groups tended originally to be based along racial guidelines; I am thinking here of the original decision that Sikhs were not to be expected to adhere to the ‘crash helmets for all motorcyclists’ rule.
Latterly, that tweaking has been gender based. From the notion that women ‘victims of domestic abuse’ – an abuse that could never be proved, only alleged, for the ‘perpetrator’ now lay dead, should be dealt with more lightly when they murdered a partner; to the current furore surrounding the sentencing of Sarah Sands which appears to be saying that a mere three and a half years in sufficient punishment for the taking of a life if a) You happen to be a single Mother to five kids of unknown fathering, and b) the life you took was only that of a man who had been guilty of paedophilia 20 years ago and was now professing his innocence of new allegations. Apparently taking a 12″ kitchen knife with you to ‘plead with the man to plead guilty’ is not indicative of anything remotely like intention to harm, and just comes in handy when you ‘lose control’…besides which, it was all the fault of the courts in giving the man bail in the first place and allowing him to plead ‘not guilty’ – everyone knows that once an allegation has been made, the predator should be locked up for life without trial.
Should you be a male single father to five children now living ‘in conditions reminiscent of the novels of Charles Dickens or Elizabeth Gaskell’ and the thought crosses your mind that you might take the bread knife with you when discussing the plea options of a female neighbour accused of ‘engaging in sexual activity with a teenager’ please don’t forget that you are likely to get extra time for the heinous crime of letting your own children live in ‘conditions reminiscent of the novels of Charles Dickens or Elizabeth Gaskell’…quite apart from the ‘brutal murder of a woman still innocent in the eyes of the law’.
There has been much comment on all these cases – mainly along the idea of bias towards racial groups or gender groups, and they can indeed be used to show that.
What I find far more worrying is that it is the police and the judiciary, both unelected, who are deciding who is a ‘worthy victim’ and who is not. The fact that they are deciding in favour of particularly hobby horses is neither here nor there – it is the fact that they are deciding we should be concerned about.
Justice or Justitia was historically portrayed as a woman – as were all the ‘virtues’; the statue above the Old Bailey has no blindfold, since apparently her ‘maidenly form’ is sufficient to guarantee impartiality….
Not far from that most celebrated place,
Where angry Justice shews her awful face,
Where little villains must submit to fate,
That great ones may enjoy the world in state.
The woman needs blindfolding again – a full hijab wouldn’t go amiss.
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October 1, 2015 at 9:16 am -
Personally I’m amazed Sand’s lawyer didn’t get her off scotfree and with a medal for bravely standing up to a paedophile to boot. Must have been a very junior member of chambers. Hopefully there will be a sentencing review and this brave brave victim will be released back to her children.
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October 1, 2015 at 2:30 pm -
Indeed, and let her chattels be returned to her too!
(Not just the the knife mentioned in the article but the “hammer and wrench” she also carried. Er, and the three empty bottles too.)
Joking aside, this is a shocking case which gives the green-light to would-be vigilantes to “tool up”.-
October 2, 2015 at 8:13 am -
The judge sternly decreed that this was not to be taken as such. But I always look to actions, not words.
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October 1, 2015 at 9:28 am -
I’ve long held the view that the UK police are “out of control”. They pick and choose which crimes they investigate. The various police forces seem to be unaccountable to anyone. As I understand it, the Chief Constables are appointed by the Home Secretary and come under the auspices of the Home Office. Then there are the seemingly useless local police authorities – to become a member you have to be one of the great and the good. Finally, we are confronted by the total wastes of space aka Police Commissioners.
It’s the old tactic of having so many bodies that can all point the finger at each other that in the end nobody is held responsible.
As far as this Predictive Policing and ‘Allegator’ Algorithms” bollocks is concerned it’s the same sort of “mathematical modelling” shite that now gives us hopeless modern weather forecasting.
I will end by posing a question that I feel sure the erudite regulars at “The Arms” will be able to answer; What’s the difference between “profiling” and “stereotyping”?
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October 1, 2015 at 10:44 am -
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October 1, 2015 at 10:44 am -
the immediate forerunner of this…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Police_Chiefs%27_Council
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October 1, 2015 at 10:54 am -
Of course, it’s obvious that HMG should find itself as amongst those worthy of police harrassment, as they seem to openly consort with those who commit the offensiveness of, apparently, as last recorded below (Wiki extract so care needed
), wilfully ignoring the lawDNA database
ACPO has supervised the creation of one of the world’s largest per-capita DNA databases, containing the DNA profiles of more than one million innocent people. ACPO’s guidelines that these profiles should only be deleted in “exceptional circumstances” were found to be unlawful by the UK Supreme Court in May 2011.[30] They were found to be incompatible with the European Convention on Human Rights, following the ruling by the European Court of Human Rights in S and Marper v United Kingdom. On 1 May 2012, the Protection of Freedoms Act 2012 completed its passage through Parliament and received Royal Assent. To date, ACPO has not reissued revised guidelines to replace its unlawful DNA exceptional procedure. Big Brother Watch, in a report of June 2012, concludes that despite the Protection of Freedoms Act, the retention of DNA in England and Wales remains an uncertain and illiberal regime.-
October 1, 2015 at 11:36 am -
One must remember that ACPO was a private organisation and was not part of the Police Service or the Home Office. It is, however, a cushy billet for retired Chief Officers and is words of advice are therefore heeded by them. It has now been replaced/renamed the National Police Chiefs’ Council. Another expensive renaming exercise so beloved by bureaucrats.
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October 1, 2015 at 6:50 pm
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October 1, 2015 at 10:31 am -
Rather worrying that Philip K Dick’s ‘Minority Report’ has become the basis of 21st century policing. It seems forces now have ‘Pre-Crime’ departments in all but name.
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October 1, 2015 at 10:44 am -
Damn it Pet, you beat me to it!!!
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October 1, 2015 at 10:34 am -
I have not yet fully recovered from 6 weeks arrest as a paedophile. ..the description was not me the video was not me the plods did not take my laptop they new it was not me…they just play a very dangerous game…I am nearly 60 with my own issues and this one was not pleasant. I told all who would listen as if I stayed silent and they published I would seem guilty. The accusers are hiding behind BBC CRIMEWATCH ANONYMITY. ..and it may prove impossible to unmask them.I know them however to be sophisticated fraudsters in the rail industry. ..as I have a FB group NOTWORK RAIL UNITED KINGDOM where I take the Piss out of them. Any advice welcome. cam
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October 1, 2015 at 10:43 am -
‘Predictive Policing’ and Allegator Algorithms’ sound frighteningly close to the dystopian future of Phillip K Dick’s 1956 short story “The Minority Report.” I used to enjoy reading books and watching films about dystopian futures, now, with every passing day,I am coming to the realisation that I am actually living in one!
P.S. What’s for dinner tonight? Oh no…… Soylent Green!
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October 1, 2015 at 10:57 am -
I share the concern that we have social and cultural engineering and that the Law and police system is integral to its implementation. It is so sad that so many of the younger generation have been so blinded that they actually believe that they are being protected and freed by legislation and law enforcement that seeks simply to control.
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October 1, 2015 at 11:18 am -
If things carry on as they are, and the pace of change stays the same, in 50 years or so there will be almost no such thing as being able to belong to a ‘free’ minority group, their being about as popular as the Falun Gong and other minority faiths etc are in that other bastion of democracy, the RoC
Unless, of course, you belong to those protected species such as, say, the Church of the LGBT Maddonas, Paters, Hermaphrodites and Whatevers, as we, or our progeny, at least, are all then policed by the socially enlightened controlling body that the NPCC (see above) morphs itself into, probably the National Political Correctness Council.
Cynic? Me?
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October 1, 2015 at 11:20 am -
While ‘Mad Donnas’ might actually be found in that enclave, ‘Madonnas’ would have been more correct
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October 1, 2015 at 12:31 pm -
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October 1, 2015 at 6:14 pm -
Thanks! How prescient of him to have been wearing that pink stole…… LOL
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October 1, 2015 at 12:06 pm -
Pedantic point, but please don’t confuse democratic Taiwan, aka the Republic of China (RoC) with the (nominally) communist Peoples Republic of China (PRC). It is the latter which loathes the Falun Gong.
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October 1, 2015 at 12:22 pm -
Thanks. Bit silly of me really, given that I was in the PRC a few months ago.
I’ll get my acronyms right the next time!
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October 1, 2015 at 12:34 pm -
In that case, shouldn’t Plod, Screws and all Briefs be investigated since they spend far more time with the ungodly than your average citizen..?
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October 1, 2015 at 12:59 pm -
I’ve never thought it right when a judge/magistrate makes a comment like ‘need to make an example of’ when it comes to sentencing. It should be for parliament to decide whether to up the punishment to quell bad behaviour, in which case potential criminals get a fair warning.
Similarly I’m not too sure about the mania for considering the consequences of a crime. Leave the handbrake off and your car runs into a bollard and the council claims damages; crush a mother and child and it’s a manslaughter charge. (Fall asleep at the wheel and derail a train, prison; Lie about your health problems and mow down pedestrians, no charges).
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October 1, 2015 at 5:40 pm -
But in a very recent case where the handbrake was not properly operated and a van ran away, killing a pensioner, the driver has not yet faced a manslaughter charge – no connection with it being a policewoman and a police van, obviously. Finger being pointed at ‘lack of training in securing the vehicle’, so it was ‘the organisation’ at fault, not the driver – but if any civilian driver did the same, they would be reminded of their Driving Test and the Highway Code before being promptly banged up.
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October 2, 2015 at 8:16 am -
Yet the recent case in the ‘Standard’ of the bus driver who drove forward, hitting a parked car with such force it landed on top of a pedestrian (thankfully he was not killed) has similarly resulted in no arrest, despite the incident being caught on CCTV…
Perhaps bus drivers don’t count as civilians?
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October 1, 2015 at 1:50 pm -
Can anyone explain the justification for classifying certain assaults as “hate crimes”? Imagine three scenarios in which a white thug punches a stranger who has done nothing any rational person would regard as provocation but the victim is either a) black or b) obviously Muslim or c) wearing a rival football shirt. a) and b) would be classified and sentenced as hate crimes but c) would not. Why is attacking someone because of their skin colour worse than attacking them solely because of what they are wearing? It cannot be because the victim chooses to be a football supporter, because attacking the Muslim is a hate crime and religion is a choice.
Does it really make sense that if the hypothetical thug hits a Jamaican in a Man Utd shirt the thug will hope the judge believes the unprovoked assault was due to the shirt?-
October 1, 2015 at 3:06 pm -
In Scotland, the worship of ‘fitba’ is a recognised religion, and has its own ‘hate crimes’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-33106460
That that particular set of laws needs kicked into touch is, of course, obvious to all but the ‘heid the ba’s’ who drew it up
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October 1, 2015 at 3:45 pm -
I suspect because the existence of crimes that are irrational + impersonal creates a horrible class of violent crimes that are hard to solve (most violence is personal and traceable). The fact that generating further disincentives for these classes of crime aligned with the political winds would have certainly helped.
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October 1, 2015 at 7:37 pm -
John Terry – an association footballer, m’lud – allegedly referred to a fellow competitor as a ‘black cunt’.
The offensive word in this phrase is ‘black’, for which he was roundly pilloried. Referring to someone as ‘a cunt’ is, apparently, perfectly acceptable.
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October 1, 2015 at 7:53 pm -
Which is odd, really; the target of the epithet was indeed black, and clearly not a vulva.
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October 1, 2015 at 6:34 pm -
A lot of this nonsense can be laid squarely at the feet of Lord Macpherson , who idiotically decided, following the Stephen Lawrence murder, (perhaps best not get onto that one), that the police were , “institutionally racist”. Therefore any incident could be deemed racist on anyones say so. Therefore the police lost their nerve and decided to institutionallly grovel, to anyone , as long as they were not white,ofr heterosexual,or male., or the victim of a crime nowadays. Too many Chief Constables with degrees instead of experience ,me thinks.
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October 1, 2015 at 7:52 pm -
I don’t really mind the degrees, provided they’re in subjects of real substance. I do agree wholeheartedly about the experience, though.
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October 1, 2015 at 7:37 pm -
“Sikhs were not to be expected to adhere to the ‘crash helmets for all motorcyclists’ rule.”
Not a ‘rule’ Anna – exempt from the law.
I remember all this very well, as it was during my motorcycling days, and although I always wore a helmet, many of my friend thought it an intrusion into their personal liberty. The ‘Sikh exemption simple ‘rubbed salt into the wound’.
If I my add another (imho) disgusting exemption from the law of this land, on the grounds of race/religion, and that is – not having to abide by the laws in force, when slaughtering animals. Why bother to have these humane laws, when there can be inhumane exemptions?-
October 1, 2015 at 7:40 pm -
Actually, it’s even worse than that; not only, as the fragrant Anna states, is there an Asian exceptionalism in victimhood, so there is an exception for Asian criminality; herewith a British Asian who didn’t know that it was illegal to have sex with a 13 year old:
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October 1, 2015 at 9:34 pm -
The Giles cartoon at the time showed a view from a beach, a full moon, and a little boat outlined on the horizon, with a long line of figures coming into view, trooping on to the sand as they emerged from the dark waters, each one of them wearing a turban. A typical British bobby of the time was there to greet their arrival, standing at the head of the queue, notebook in hand, saying, “Right, let’s start with ‘Failure to wear a crash helmet’”
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October 1, 2015 at 10:40 pm -
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October 1, 2015 at 11:55 pm -
Yay! The Alzheimer’s must be in remission….
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October 1, 2015 at 7:50 pm -
Justice in a hijab? Erm – with all due respect, perhaps not. The Common Law may well be imperfect, but it’s still a lot more advanced than Sharia law.
), wilfully ignoring the law
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