The Elephant in the Caliphate.
The girls are still missing – the Twitter hashtag #bringbackourgirls only occasionally flickers into life as the fashionable world, and the Sky ‘disaster team’, has moved on from their plight. Even the wristband salesmen have moved onto more profitable pastures. Eight months is a long time. Long enough for international outrage to rise, fall and fade away. Two months later 130 Syrian children were kidnapped – we didn’t mention that either.
The news that the murderous caliphate was only as far away as the Eurostar depot, and worse, had attacked journalists was far more exciting. Sky reporters in mini-vans raced the Police neck and neck along the N2 motorway, giving us a heart-pounding visual ringside seat, until the Police told them to f**k off out of it and let someone who could actually do something about the situation get on with their work. The Police helicopter hovering over the suspects was just as occupied dodging media ‘copters until someone had the wit to call for an air exclusion zone. Oh, the excitement! Even Martin Brunt temporarily lost his stammer.
17 people lay dead by the end of the day, at the hands of ‘Islamic fundamentalists’. It was the only story in town.
Except that it wasn’t. Elsewhere in the world, 2,000 people in just one town, Baga, lay bloodied and broken, homes were burnt to the ground, and an estimated 30,000 people are on the move, searching for a new place to rest their heads tonight. Equally at the hands of Islamic fundamentalists.
However, no journalists were harmed in the making of this story, there were no British holiday makers spending terrifying hours trying to find each other again, and not a celebrity in sight. Really, no reason for us to take any notice at all. It was merely another notch on the belt of the fanatics who want to establish a caliphate across Europe and Africa.
It did get me thinking about this ‘ere caliphate. Surely in order to have a genuine caliphate, then ISIS or the Islamic fundamentalists or whatever you want to call them, need to control that most holy of places, the Kaaba, in Mecca, Muhammed’s birthplace? Or at least Medina, Muhammed’s burial place. Yet nobody is mentioning Saudi Arabia. What is happening at present is like Catholic fundamentalists trying to establish control of the faithful from West Mersey and ignoring the Vatican. Most odd.
Then I discovered that ISIS are making attempts to get into Saudi Arabia, and like the massacre in Baga, the western media is pretty much ignoring it. The Saudi Press Agency speaks of four terrorists: two shot, two who blew themselves up, just three days ago, entering Saudi Arabia. Even more interesting, were those Saudi nationals killed themselves in this exchange of firepower at a border crossing.
Brigadier General Awdah Mouawad Al-Balawi. Brigadier General? That’s a pretty high powered border crossing guard.
But then the Saudis have more to fear from ISIS than any of us. King Abdullah is seriously ill, and his chosen successor, Prince Salman, has also been reported as none too well. Who will succeed them? It would be the perfect time for ISIS to destabilise Saudi.
Opinion varies as to why the Saudis have allowed oil prices to fall so low – the Economist thinks the intention is to put pressure on Russia and Iran, both dependent on high oil prices to pay for their foreign adventures. The Wall Street journal thinks it is to put American ‘frackers’ out of business.
I wonder whether their real concern is to put ISIS out of business. The money ISIS is making out of captured oil wells as they chomp their way across the desert has long been documented – believed to be millions a day.
Not so long ago, we had alarmist headlines that ‘ISIS was poised to take Baghdad‘. It puzzled me at the time, because the rag-tag and bobtail ISIS army of disillusioned European teenagers had as much chance of taking the seat of the remains of the Iraqi army as flying – and if, by chance, they did – they would be trying to hold onto a city in chaos, where 90% of the citizens are embittered Shia, who loathe the Sunnis without exception. There’d be no sympathisers there. Why would they? Indeed, ISIS was ‘chased away’ [US version] or ‘walked away laughing’ [non-US version].
Saudi Arabia is different though. Predominantly a version of the Sunni faith, Wahhabi, the Saudis are quite fond of some of the more medieval attributes of the ISIS version of Islam. They already have Sharia law, and were recently reported as having exceeded ISISs total in the beheading stakes this year. As in North Korea, Somalia and ISIS-land the Saudis like to kaput the caput for public entertainment.
Whilst the Telegraph cheerfully calculates that ‘falling oil prices will save motorists £140 each’, and the Daily Mail chortles that an independent Scotland would have been £15.5bn short of drinking vouchers, (and house prices in London will fall if the Russians are starved of oil money) – nobody seems to be asking why the Saudi Royal family should have dropped their opposition to falling oil prices and are not cutting production, nor what happens if ISIS invade Saudi Arabia.
Nor, on what moral platform, the Saudis decided to join the coalition against that dreadful ISIS ‘who behead people, and make women cover up in public, and believe that they are the right people to control the heart of the caliphate’.
I mean you couldn’t let people like that rule Saudi Arabia and control our main supply of energy, could you? Could you? I reckon the citizens of Saudi Arabia would barely notice the difference – but we might in the freezing UK.
- Moor Larkin
January 12, 2015 at 10:10 am -
Whatever happened in Kobane in the end? I thought the future of Europe depended on that small dusty bit of Nowhere-Land.
The Kurdish fight against ISIS has unified various Kurdish factions and quickened the creation of a Kurdish proto-state in northern Iraq, as Der Speigel reported from on the ground… Despite the alignment of interests with the United States and other Western powers who have backed the fight against ISIS, the PKK remains on the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organization
- Cloudberry
January 12, 2015 at 11:11 am -
“The girls are still missing … Two months later 130 Syrian children were kidnapped – we didn’t mention that either. … Elsewhere in the world, 2,000 people in just one town, Baga, lay bloodied and broken…”
I couldn’t believe how quickly they moved on from that last story in the news the other day. It’s also astounding how the story of the missing girls has gone cold. Imagine if they had been white! It couldn’t be more obvious that, from a Western perspective, black lives count for less.
- Moor Larkin
January 12, 2015 at 12:04 pm -
* black lives count for less *
I would say that it suggests that black lives count for less with black people and to leave the white people out of this.
- Cloudberry
January 12, 2015 at 12:11 pm -
If white people can’t give that news proportionate airtime, their lives clearly do count for less.
- Opus
January 12, 2015 at 12:17 pm -
The only reason it was in the news in the first place was because they were girls [photo of Mrs Obama looking fretful] – dead boys had never been of interest to the media.
- AdrianS
January 12, 2015 at 5:42 pm -
It would if they were victims of historic sex abuse
- AdrianS
- Moor Larkin
January 12, 2015 at 1:04 pm -
Black people in Boko Haram will be topping themselves in droves after being exposed as nasty by Martin Brunt I am sure.
- Robert the Biker
January 12, 2015 at 1:49 pm -
Why should I or anyone else wring my (oh so guilty for everything) white hands over the actions of a pack of black savages TOWARDS THEIR OWN PEOPLE.
Do you imagine the local news in Nigeria went on about the lives lost in Paris? But hey, they were only whiteys, no importasnce right?
- Opus
- Cloudberry
- Moor Larkin
- Alexander Baron
January 12, 2015 at 11:30 am -
I always thought the Caliph Ate was an Afghan restaurant.
- The Blocked Dwarf
January 12, 2015 at 2:18 pm -
Just across casbah from the that pious fast food joint : “Mecc-Donalds”…with it’s giant golden scimitars outside.?
My former Brother-in-law ( a Maroc ) returned from the Hajj to Germany clutching a 5 litre plastic bottle of water from that most holiest of places in the musselman world. The label was, of course, in Arabic….arabic whose characters to western, German, unbelieving eyes spelt out ‘Pee Pee Wasser’ -which I think requires no further translation.
- The Blocked Dwarf
January 12, 2015 at 2:27 pm -
For reasons of senility I have just checked and infact the bottle of Zam Zam Holy water appeared to read “Pi Pi Clo” which in German means “Pee Toilet”.
Former Brother-in-law was at first perplexed as to why we German Unbelievers were ROFL-Our-FAO . When we explained why we found the label of the bottle so amusing he had a bit of a ‘jihad’ moment…
- Robert the Biker
January 12, 2015 at 2:44 pm -
Filthy Infidels, how dare you make fun of our piss-water!
I… You…. Ahhhhhhh
*rushes off and beheads self*- AndyM
January 12, 2015 at 4:24 pm -
Now I understand why they always say “piss be upon him”!
- AndyM
- The Blocked Dwarf
January 12, 2015 at 2:45 pm
- Robert the Biker
- The Blocked Dwarf
- The Blocked Dwarf
- Fat Steve
January 12, 2015 at 3:41 pm -
I know little of geo politics but it would seem unlikely from a layman’s point of view that the world’s only super power would encourage (permit?) any regime change in a country that supplies so much of its energy needs however venal that regime might be unless it was to secure even greater stability or cheaper pricing for its supply of energy…..a reasonable argument has been made that it was only when Iraq started to price its oil in Euros rather than dollars that it sealed its fate to be invaded.
For the moment my guess is that Saudi security is underwritten by the USA and so long as Saudi oil is cheaper than fracked USA oil (I think break even is around $60 ) its a reasonable assumption the USA will try its hardest to keep things as they are whilst ensuring strategic supplies and pricing are safeguarded by encouraging exploration (but not necessarily exploitation) of frackable reserves at home.
But I agree the writing may be on the wall for the House of Saud in the longer term- Robert the Biker
January 12, 2015 at 3:57 pm -
I do believe that (one) of the things the monkey-boys don’t realise is just how very labour intensive a wellhead or loading station or refinery is; the bastard things need continual supervision and maintenance and neither the supervisors nor equipment are indiginous to Saudi, nor anywhere else in the sandbox.*
They have stocks and can make basic level stuff, but complex control equipment and vessels, pumps, reactors and compressors come from Europe or the US.
Who do they plan to sell to if not us? The Russians don’t need it, the Chinese don’t need the grief, having their own muslim shitheads to control, the Uighars.
There is also the unstated fact that one of our submarines could turn their caliphate into radioactive slag in about 15 minutes.*I design the buggers, I know wherof I speak.
- Not Long Now
January 12, 2015 at 5:06 pm -
“There is also the unstated fact that one of our submarines could turn their caliphate into radioactive slag in about 15 minutes.”
I hope sir that I might salute you, just so long as it causes you no offense of course. You have after all put it all into perspective.
- Not Long Now
- Moor Larkin
January 12, 2015 at 4:50 pm -
* For the moment my guess is that Saudi security is underwritten by the USA and so long as Saudi oil is cheaper than fracked USA oil *
There’s nothing like raw real-politik to make one smile at how simple the world can be..
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/01/north-dakota-fracking-towns-economy-collapses-as-oil-prices-plummet/
- Robert the Biker
- Naughty Naughty
January 12, 2015 at 4:08 pm -
Radio active slag … isn’t that the woman in the ched Evans case?
- Duncan Disorderly
January 12, 2015 at 4:10 pm -
Patrick Cockburn of the Independent is good on the ISIS issue. The Iraqi ‘army’ is a sick joke.
- Dave
January 12, 2015 at 5:06 pm -
Top post Anna. Good solid investigative, forensic even, journalism that puts most newspapers to shame
- Bill Sticker
January 12, 2015 at 5:48 pm -
Well at least in one corner of the Islamic world they’re waking up and smelling the coffee.
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/from-the-arab-world/egypts-sisi-islamic-thinking-is-antagonizing-the-entire-world/
Speech here: Click on ‘CC’ to get translation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POGpIt2U4s4 - The Blocked Dwarf
January 12, 2015 at 7:11 pm -
“What is happening at present is like Catholic fundamentalists trying to establish control of the faithful from West Mersey and ignoring the Vatican”
Actually that is the whole point of Catholicism. His Holiness-wid-da-funneh-hat may be Christ’s Mouth Piece on Earth …but only a heretic would actually listen to what that mouth is saying. Start doing what your religious leader tells you and you , very quickly, end up turning the other cheek and spreading peace, good will and love to all mankind….and where would that get us?
- Engineer
January 12, 2015 at 7:22 pm -
What an excellent and perceptive piece of thinking and writing, Anna. By ‘eck lass, tha’s on form!
One does have the feeling that World War III is under way, and has been since the World Trade Centre attack. Extreme Islam vs. The Rest. Not a war of armies facing each other, not a war of airial bombardment, not even a war (despite the CND fears) of nuclear weapons. Locations: anywhere you find extreme Islam, or anywhere extreme Islam feels it’s being done down or insulted; so America and Europe, Africa and much of Asia, and especially the Middle East. So far, South America has not been much affected (as far as I know). Saudi Arabia is a slight oddity, as it may well be the birthplace and cradle of extreme Islam, but it also derives almost all it’s wealth by selling oil to the non-Muslim west, and thus the House of Saud’s recognition of which side it’s bread is buttered.
One reason that Saudi is not trying to influence the oil price is that OPEC now only control about 30% of world production, so their influence as a cartel is about done. They may just have shrugged their shoulders and accepted the inevitable. Better to squeeze as much as they can for as long as they can at the price ruling in the world market, rather than be greedy and lose customers.
On the current conflicts, they’ve been pretty neutral so far, and will probably stay that way as long as the oil dollars roll in. They are also very well aware that if America feels that it’s (and the free world’s) interests would be served by occupying Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Peninsula, it very probably could do; it managed to occupy both Iraq and Afghanistan, and if it had wanted to, would still be in both places.
America, on the other hand, knows full well that you don’t snuff out a deeply-held set of beliefs by occupying the land on which they dominate (and whilst it’ll buy oil cheaply from that land whilst it can, it doesn’t actually need Saudi oil at the moment). Indeed, you probably make those beliefs stronger by antagonising those who’s beliefs are similar, but moderate. America knows it will have to win by convincing hearts and minds; it may well have done a lot of that in Afghanistan, and whilst I think the West may have pulled out a bit too soon, only time will tell; Afghanistan might become an important part of the ‘free’ world, if they can keep a lid on the Taliban.
So – we’re stuck with the hard grind of detecting and averting home-based terror attacks whenever we can, the battle of ideas at home (moderate Islam is fine as part of a free, liberal, democratic country; extreme Islam isn’t and ultimately won’t benefit mankind anyway), containing conflict in the Middle East and Africa, and hopefully, eventually, finding solutions to problems like Palestine/Israel. Might take quite a while.
As far as the West is concerned, it’s probably not a bad thing that the House of Saud remains fairly neutral. It saves a lot of unpleasantness safeguarding oil supplies in the future if they do turn openly extreme, and it saves their being a target of ISIL, thus giving the West another headache. How long Saudi maintains that position is, of course, anybody’s guess.
- Moor Larkin
January 13, 2015 at 11:32 am -
Ascribing some Great Game over Oil to the US is I think fallacious. Their foreign policy seems driven by some cranky amalgam of Evangelical Christianity and Liberal Do-Goodery. Whatever happened to the great strategy of them controlling the oil-fields of Iraq. That whole argument is as specious as the idea that Bush wanted to control the world somehow. Bush actually got voted in on a wave of Isolationism and he made plain his intention to withdraw from being the world’s policeman role that Clinton had created for the US. The eventual invasions of Iraq were predicated on some benign notion that if they removed the “evil dictator” then democracy would flourish and spread throughout the Middle East. The remnants of this daft liberal train of thought still exists and has led to the encouragement of revolution across North Africa. If ever we needed some cynical real-politik after 9/11, we needed it in the USA. Instead we got child-like innocence and childish notions of “Freedom”.
- Moor Larkin
- Cascadian
January 12, 2015 at 10:01 pm -
The landlady poses a tough question. My best guess as to what may follow is as flawed as any other, but here goes:
With the unseemly haste that the USA is vacating the middle east and Europe, (closure of three major airbases in UK announced last week) it seems to be losing its appetite for the role of world policeman and for bailing Europe out of its foolishness.USA is now self-sufficient with petroleum and natural gas.
Saudi Arabia has always been willing to bribe anybody that threatens its territory, I would therefore predict that DAESH will (already is) attempt some desultory attacks then settle for a large amount of jizya to progress no further. Mission achieved, the wahabbis are already in power and now you have a lucrative cashflow. Women can be flogged for petty crimes gays can be hanged.
Europe and USA (heaven knows why except to maintain the integrity of NATO) are embroiled in a spat with Russia in the Ukraine to attempt to support an illegitimate regime that is well disposed to the EU. EU relies heavily on imports of Russian natural gas for its economical welfare.
A situation could easily evolve where USA leaves EU to its own devices, Russia could get nasty and close the gas pipeline, Saudi could be pressured to cut exports to EU. Maybe the North African muslims decide to cutoff LNG shipments unless you cede Andulusia.
Result, your expensive experiments with windmills, nuclear power plant closures and coal power plant closures gets a real-world workout-you will not be happy! DAESH flexes it’s newly enriched muscles and awakens it’s sleeper cells, Bobs-yer-uncle-Fanny’s-yer-aunt Elton John and the same-sex married cohort and assorted po-faced luvvies will be sporting #bringbackoursodomy photocopies from the safety of Bermuda. David camoron will delete activists from his vocabulary and refer to the new rulers as colleagues, rather like he does presently referring to the EU. Liam Neeson gets to enjoy the evening call to prayer. Citizens receive their Jizya notice from the Ministry of Work and Pensions. It’s all good really.
Whatever you do-DO NOT call on the commonwealth to bail you out yet again.
- Cloudberry
January 12, 2015 at 10:17 pm -
CNN International spared a couple of minutes this evening to report on killings in Nigeria, mentioning suicide bombings by two females and a young girl. There doesn’t seem to be any confirmation as to whether it’s linked to the other story, though there was apparently speculation last year.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30772028
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28657085 - JK
January 13, 2015 at 4:16 am -
Says something about cold *I reckon:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/12/us-odd-saudi-snow-idUSKBN0KL15N20150112
Islam in mind anyway.
- Ms Mildred
January 13, 2015 at 11:14 am -
A scary scenario Anna, not eliciting too many comments. I followed the snowman link and found that an Imam has pronounced snowmen ‘unislamic’. Someone dressed a snowlaydee in a bra and linked her arm with a snowman. Thus enabling snowpeople to be pronounced obscene. Just shows events can twist and turn. Just because it snowed in a place not accustomed to snow. I shudder to think what could happen to a lot of our figurative art if islam came to Europe? I pondered, on Sunday in the car, why Saudi Arabia had dropped the price of oil so much. Got told it was not a fit subject for a country drive…too scary to talk about. As we drove out of Tesco Express the price was amazingly low…..hurrah. I wonder why naughty cartoons of Ala on utube are still there to show to the world? Yet a mag hardly anyone knows of is a killing ground, an excuse to execute Jews too.
- suffolkgirl
January 13, 2015 at 3:26 pm -
I thought it was a very thought provoking article also: no immediate comment from me as the more I find out about this subject, the less I know. It seems only yesterday that Al Quaeda were the greatest threat the world has ever known, and now they seem no more than bit players.
I would imagine the House of Saud looks after its own and will not align itself with a caliphate which might well disrupt its lucrative status quo. According to an interesting article in today’s Indy the Saudis have already outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, so shared religious identity doesn’t seem to count for much when hanging on to your goodies is at stake.
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